Prospect board, #1613 overall
Gavin Cornforth
Right wing, 19.8 years old, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL), 5′9″ 170 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
5%
Scouting report
Gavin Cornforth is a 19-year-old right wing with Moncton Wildcats in the QMJHL, undrafted. He has 12 goals and 18 assists in 29 games, 1.03 a game, which works out to about 10 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.8 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.34 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. At 19.8 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 170 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 5% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner1%
- Middle-sixer2%
- Fourth-liner5%
- Tweener5%
- AHLer12%
How he got there
1His line
1.03 P/GP
12 G, 18 A in 29 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
10 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−23%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
38 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Moncton Wildcats | QMJHL | 29 | 12 | 18 | 30 | 1.03 |