Prospect board, #1400 overall
Gavin Garland
Centre, 20.6 years old, Tri-City Americans (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
3%
Scouting report
Gavin Garland is a 20-year-old centre with Tri-City Americans in the WHL, undrafted. He has 16 goals and 31 assists in 68 games, 0.69 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.6 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.76 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. At 20.6 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it.
The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 3% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer1%
- Fourth-liner3%
- Tweener4%
- AHLer46%
How he got there
1His line
0.69 P/GP
16 G, 31 A in 68 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
8 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+29%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
20.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
39 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Tri-City Americans | WHL | 68 | 16 | 31 | 47 | 0.69 |