Prospect board, #843 overall
Gavin McCarthy
Defence, 21.3 years old, Rochester Americans (AHL), 6′2″ 194 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
16%
Scouting report
Gavin McCarthy is a 21-year-old defenceman with Rochester Americans in the AHL. He has 0 goals and 2 assists in 5 games, 0.40 a game, which works out to about 13 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 21.3 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 194 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 16% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair1%
- Second-pair3%
- Third-pair16%
- Tweener20%
- AHLer47%
How he got there
1His line
0.40 P/GP
0 G, 2 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
13 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−4%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
22 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Rochester Americans | AHL | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.40 |
| Last season | Rochester Americans | AHL | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |