Prospect board, #488 overall
Grayden Peterson
Left wing, 17.1 years old, Red Deer Rebels (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
21%
Scouting report
Grayden Peterson is a 17-year-old left wing with Red Deer Rebels in the WHL. He has 4 goals and 1 assist in 9 games, 0.56 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.14 a game last season. The five best scorers around him average 1.28 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them.
At 17.1 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 21% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 5% of a first-line career. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner5%
- Middle-sixer13%
- Fourth-liner21%
- Tweener27%
- AHLer (most likely)52%
How he got there
1His line
0.56 P/GP
4 G, 1 A in 9 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−16%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
45 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Red Deer Rebels | WHL | 9 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.56 |
| Last season | Red Deer Rebels | WHL | 42 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 0.14 |