Prospect board, #491 overall
Grayson Tash
Defence, 17.4 years old, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
24%
Scouting report
Grayson Tash is a 17-year-old defenceman with Seattle Thunderbirds in the WHL. He has 2 goals and 4 assists in 8 games, 0.75 a game, which works out to about 9 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.18 a game last season. His team scores 2.8 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 24% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 7% of a top-pair career. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair7%
- Second-pair8%
- Third-pair24%
- Tweener32%
- AHLer (most likely)50%
How he got there
1His line
0.75 P/GP
2 G, 4 A in 8 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
9 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+15%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
17.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
27 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Seattle Thunderbirds | WHL | 8 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.75 |
| Last season | Seattle Thunderbirds | WHL | 56 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 0.18 |