Prospect board, #974 overall
Hudson Darby
Right wing, 19.8 years old, Swift Current Broncos (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
7%
Scouting report
Hudson Darby is a 19-year-old right wing with Swift Current Broncos in the WHL, undrafted. He has 19 goals and 31 assists in 59 games, 0.85 a game, which works out to about 10 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.7 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.59 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. At 19.8 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 7% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 3% of a first-line career. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner3%
- Middle-sixer3%
- Fourth-liner7%
- Tweener8%
- AHLer (most likely)55%
How he got there
1His line
0.85 P/GP
19 G, 31 A in 59 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
10 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+39%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
19.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
45 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Swift Current Broncos | WHL | 59 | 19 | 31 | 50 | 0.85 |