GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #1594 overall

Hudson Martin

Defence, 19.2 years old, Sudbury Wolves (OHL), 5′10″ 179 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

5%

Long shot

Scouting report

Hudson Martin is a 19-year-old defenceman with Sudbury Wolves in the OHL, undrafted. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 10 games, 0.10 a game, which works out to about 1 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 4.3 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.40 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 179 pounds.

His most likely outcome is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 5% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite<1%
  2. Top-pair<1%
  3. Second-pair<1%
  4. Third-pair5%
  5. Tweener7%
  6. AHLer21%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.10 P/GP

    0 G, 1 A in 10 games, OHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    1 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    −19%

    Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster

  4. 4Age

    19.2

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    None

    Passed over, read as a pick after the last one

  6. 6If he makes it

    21 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
This seasonSudbury WolvesOHL100110.10
Last seasonSudbury WolvesOHL62114150.24