Prospect board, #130 overall
Ilya Kolmakov
Left wing, 18.0 years old, Sherbrooke Phœnix (QMJHL), 6′1″ 179 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
39%
Scouting report
Ilya Kolmakov is a 17-year-old left wing with Sherbrooke Phœnix in the QMJHL. He has 2 goals and 8 assists in 10 games, 1.00 a game, which works out to about 9 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 179 pounds.
His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 39% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 16% of a first-line career and 7% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 50 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite7%
- First-liner16%
- Middle-sixer27%
- Fourth-liner39%
- Tweener (most likely)54%
- AHLer71%
How he got there
1His line
1.00 P/GP
2 G, 8 A in 10 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
9 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−10%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.0
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
50 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Sherbrooke Phœnix | QMJHL | 10 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 1.00 |
| Last season | Sherbrooke Phœnix | QMJHL | 62 | 13 | 35 | 48 | 0.77 |