Prospect board, #969 overall
Ilya Pautov
Left wing, 20.4 years old, Lehigh Valley Phantoms (AHL), 5′11″ 170 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
15%
Scouting report
Ilya Pautov is a 20-year-old left wing with Lehigh Valley Phantoms in the AHL. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 6 games, 0.17 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 20.4 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 170 pounds. His most likely outcome is a long shot, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 15% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer2%
- Fourth-liner15%
- Tweener15%
- AHLer42%
How he got there
1His line
0.17 P/GP
0 G, 1 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
5 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−13%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
20.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
29 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Lehigh Valley Phantoms | AHL | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.17 |