Prospect board, #341 overall
Ivan Ryabkin
Centre, 19.4 years old, Chicago Wolves (AHL), 5′11″ 205 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
27%
Scouting report
Ivan Ryabkin is a 19-year-old centre with Chicago Wolves in the AHL. He has 1 goal and 1 assist in 6 games, 0.33 a game, which works out to about 11 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 1.7 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.40 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up.
At 19.4 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 205 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 27% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 8% of a first-line career and 2% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 40 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner8%
- Middle-sixer10%
- Fourth-liner27%
- Tweener40%
- AHLer (most likely)65%
How he got there
1His line
0.33 P/GP
1 G, 1 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
11 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+44%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
19.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
40 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Chicago Wolves | AHL | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 |
| Last season | Charlottetown Islanders | QMJHL | 20 | 13 | 29 | 42 | 2.10 |
| Last season | Chicago Wolves | AHL | 31 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 0.32 |