Prospect board, #1139 overall
Jack Nesbitt
Centre, 19.7 years old, Windsor Spitfires (OHL), 6′4″ 189 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
9%
Scouting report
Jack Nesbitt is a 19-year-old centre with Windsor Spitfires in the OHL, undrafted. He has 25 goals and 33 assists in 55 games, 1.05 a game, which works out to about 12 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. At 19.7 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 189 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 9% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner1%
- Middle-sixer2%
- Fourth-liner9%
- Tweener11%
- AHLer40%
How he got there
1His line
1.05 P/GP
25 G, 33 A in 55 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
13 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−11%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
33 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Windsor Spitfires | OHL | 55 | 25 | 33 | 58 | 1.05 |