GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #1330 overall

Jacob Cloutier

Right wing, 19.5 years old, Saginaw Spirit (OHL), 5′11″ 180 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

7%

Long shot

Scouting report

Jacob Cloutier is a 19-year-old right wing with Saginaw Spirit in the OHL, undrafted. He has 3 goals and 6 assists in 9 games, 1.00 a game, which works out to about 12 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.73 a game last season. The five best scorers around him average 1.58 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 7% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite<1%
  2. First-liner1%
  3. Middle-sixer2%
  4. Fourth-liner7%
  5. Tweener11%
  6. AHLer28%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    1.00 P/GP

    3 G, 6 A in 9 games, OHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    12 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    −17%

    Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster

  4. 4Age

    19.5

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    None

    Passed over, read as a pick after the last one

  6. 6If he makes it

    33 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
This seasonSaginaw SpiritOHL93691.00
Last seasonSaginaw SpiritOHL642225470.73