Jacob Henderson

Defence, 18.5 years old, Kelowna Rockets (WHL)

Odds he's an NHL regular

Long shot

Scouting report

Jacob Henderson is an 18-year-old defenceman with Kelowna Rockets in the WHL. He has 3 goals and 3 assists in 9 games, 0.67 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.17 a game last season.

His most likely outcome is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 7% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
Top-pair1%
Second-pair2%
Third-pair7%
Tweener11%
AHLer31%

How he got there

1His line
0.67 P/GP
3 G, 3 A in 9 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
8 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
No change
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
18.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
24 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Kelowna Rockets	WHL	9	3	3	6	0.67
Last season	Kelowna Rockets	WHL	65	2	9	11	0.17