Jacob McKinnon

Left wing, 16.0 years old, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL), 5′9″ 168 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

55%

Fourth-liner

Scouting report

Jacob McKinnon is a 15-year-old left wing with Blainville-Boisbriand Armada in the QMJHL. He has 7 goals and 4 assists in 12 games, 0.92 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. His team scores 3.0 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it.

At 16.0 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 168 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a fourth-liner, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 55% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 43% of a first-line career and 10% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 59 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite10%
First-liner43%
Middle-sixer43%
Fourth-liner (most likely)55%
Tweener79%
AHLer79%

How he got there

1His line
0.92 P/GP
7 G, 4 A in 12 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
9 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+25%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
16.0
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
59 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Blainville-Boisbriand Armada	QMJHL	12	7	4	11	0.92