Prospect board, #1083 overall
Jake Gustafson
Centre, 18.4 years old, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
7%
Scouting report
Jake Gustafson is an 18-year-old centre with Portland Winterhawks in the WHL. He has 1 goal and 2 assists in 7 games, 0.43 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.68 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 7% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer2%
- Fourth-liner7%
- Tweener12%
- AHLer (most likely)54%
How he got there
1His line
0.43 P/GP
1 G, 2 A in 7 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
5 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+25%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
32 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Portland Winterhawks | WHL | 7 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.43 |
| Last season | Portland Winterhawks | WHL | 68 | 13 | 12 | 25 | 0.37 |