Prospect board, #490 overall
Jake Murray
Centre, 17.6 years old, Erie Otters (OHL), 6′1″ 195 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
21%
Scouting report
Jake Murray is a 17-year-old centre with Erie Otters in the OHL. He has 1 goal and 3 assists in 11 games, 0.36 a game, which works out to about 4 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.6 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.77 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 195 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 21% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 5% of a first-line career and 2% of turning into one of the league's best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner5%
- Middle-sixer9%
- Fourth-liner21%
- Tweener31%
- AHLer (most likely)58%
How he got there
1His line
0.36 P/GP
1 G, 3 A in 11 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
4 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+26%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
17.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
41 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Erie Otters | OHL | 11 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.36 |
| Last season | Erie Otters | OHL | 62 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 0.18 |