Prospect board, #569 overall
Jake O'Brien
Centre, 19.3 years old, Brantford Bulldogs (OHL), 6′2″ 177 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
13%
Scouting report
Jake O'Brien is a 19-year-old centre with Brantford Bulldogs in the OHL, undrafted. He has 28 goals and 65 assists in 53 games, 1.75 a game, which works out to about 21 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 4.6 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.29 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 177 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 13% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 6% of a first-line career. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite1%
- First-liner6%
- Middle-sixer7%
- Fourth-liner13%
- Tweener27%
- AHLer (most likely)71%
How he got there
1His line
1.75 P/GP
28 G, 65 A in 53 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
21 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−18%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
47 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Brantford Bulldogs | OHL | 53 | 28 | 65 | 93 | 1.75 |