Prospect board, #851 overall
Jakub Dvořák
Defence, 21.3 years old, Ontario Reign (AHL), 6′5″ 210 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
12%
Scouting report
Jakub Dvořák is a 21-year-old defenceman with Ontario Reign in the AHL. He has 4 goals and 3 assists in 45 games, 0.16 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 21.3 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds. His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 12% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair<1%
- Second-pair2%
- Third-pair12%
- Tweener22%
- AHLer (most likely)63%
How he got there
1His line
0.16 P/GP
4 G, 3 A in 45 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
5 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−2%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
21 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Ontario Reign | AHL | 45 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.16 |