Prospect board, #849 overall
Jan Chovan
Centre, 19.7 years old, Sudbury Wolves (OHL), 6′3″ 198 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
10%
Scouting report
Jan Chovan is a 19-year-old centre with Sudbury Wolves in the OHL, undrafted. He has 3 goals and 7 assists in 8 games, 1.25 a game, which works out to about 15 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. That is up from 0.92 a game last season. The five best scorers around him average 1.31 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. At 19.7 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 198 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 10% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner2%
- Middle-sixer4%
- Fourth-liner10%
- Tweener16%
- AHLer (most likely)58%
How he got there
1His line
1.25 P/GP
3 G, 7 A in 8 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
15 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−14%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
40 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Sudbury Wolves | OHL | 8 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1.25 |
| Last season | Sudbury Wolves | OHL | 60 | 28 | 27 | 55 | 0.92 |