Prospect board, #20 overall
Jaxon Jacobson
Centre, 17.8 years old, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
68%
Scouting report
Jaxon Jacobson is a 17-year-old centre with Brandon Wheat Kings in the WHL. He has 5 goals and 4 assists in 11 games, 0.82 a game, which works out to about 10 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals.
That is down from 1.35 a game last season, and the projection drops with it. His most likely outcome is a middle-sixer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 68% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 42% of a first-line career and 37% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 64 points a season at his best. Moving up a tier would take scoring well above his league's top-line rate.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite37%
- First-liner42%
- Middle-sixer (most likely)54%
- Fourth-liner68%
- Tweener78%
- AHLer91%
How he got there
1His line
0.82 P/GP
5 G, 4 A in 11 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
10 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−1%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
64 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Brandon Wheat Kings | WHL | 11 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0.82 |
| Last season | Brandon Wheat Kings | WHL | 63 | 25 | 60 | 85 | 1.35 |