Jay Nimchonok

Defence, 16.0 years old, Brampton Steelheads (OHL), 6′2″ 194 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

44%

AHLer

Scouting report

Jay Nimchonok is a 15-year-old defenceman with Brampton Steelheads in the OHL. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 5 games, 0.20 a game, which works out to about 2 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.80 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it.

At 16.0 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 194 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 44% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 10% of a top-pair career and 9% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 33 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite9%
Top-pair10%
Second-pair26%
Third-pair44%
Tweener45%
AHLer (most likely)61%

How he got there

1His line
0.20 P/GP
0 G, 1 A in 5 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
2 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+26%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
16.0
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
33 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Brampton Steelheads	OHL	5	0	1	1	0.20