GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #97 overall

Jean-Cristoph Lemieux

Right wing, 18.2 years old, Sudbury Wolves (OHL), 6′0″ 197 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

55%

Fourth-liner

Scouting report

Jean-Cristoph Lemieux is an 18-year-old right wing with Sudbury Wolves in the OHL. He has 9 goals and 5 assists in 8 games, 1.75 a game, which works out to about 21 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. That is up from 0.77 a game last season. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 197 pounds.

His most likely outcome is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 55% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 18% of a first-line career and 4% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 44 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite4%
  2. First-liner18%
  3. Middle-sixer30%
  4. Fourth-liner (most likely)55%
  5. Tweener68%
  6. AHLer80%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    1.75 P/GP

    9 G, 5 A in 8 games, OHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    21 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    −5%

    Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster

  4. 4Age

    18.2

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    None

    Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers

  6. 6If he makes it

    44 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
This seasonSudbury WolvesOHL895141.75
Last seasonSudbury WolvesOHL562023430.77