Prospect board, #931 overall
Joe Arntsen
Defence, 23.3 years old, Abbotsford Canucks (AHL), 6′3″ 210 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
11%
Scouting report
Joe Arntsen is a 23-year-old defenceman with Abbotsford Canucks in the AHL. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 5 games, 0.20 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 3.7 a game, one of the better offences around. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 11% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair<1%
- Second-pair<1%
- Third-pair11%
- Tweener12%
- AHLer (most likely)79%
How he got there
1His line
0.20 P/GP
0 G, 1 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−12%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
23.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
19 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Abbotsford Canucks | AHL | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 |
| Last season | Abbotsford Canucks | AHL | 64 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.11 |