Prospect board, #182 overall
Jordan Duguay
Left wing, 18.6 years old, Portland Winterhawks (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
33%
Scouting report
Jordan Duguay is an 18-year-old left wing with Portland Winterhawks in the WHL. He has 1 goal and 7 assists in 8 games, 1.00 a game, which works out to about 12 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 2.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.56 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 33% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 11% of a first-line career and 6% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 51 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite6%
- First-liner11%
- Middle-sixer24%
- Fourth-liner33%
- Tweener40%
- AHLer (most likely)79%
How he got there
1His line
1.00 P/GP
1 G, 7 A in 8 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
12 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+31%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
51 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Portland Winterhawks | WHL | 8 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 1.00 |
| Last season | Portland Winterhawks | WHL | 68 | 22 | 43 | 65 | 0.96 |