Prospect board, #833 overall
Josh Toll
Defence, 19.7 years old, Wenatchee Wild (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
14%
Scouting report
Josh Toll is a 19-year-old defenceman with Wenatchee Wild in the WHL, undrafted. He has 4 goals and 50 assists in 67 games, 0.81 a game, which works out to about 9 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 2.6 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.64 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. At 19.7 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 14% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair3%
- Second-pair3%
- Third-pair14%
- Tweener17%
- AHLer (most likely)53%
How he got there
1His line
0.81 P/GP
4 G, 50 A in 67 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
9 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+31%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
19.7
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
25 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Wenatchee Wild | WHL | 67 | 4 | 50 | 54 | 0.81 |