Prospect board, #540 overall
J.R. Avon
Forward, 23.2 years old, Coachella Valley Firebirds (AHL), 6′0″ 195 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
23%
Scouting report
J.R. Avon is a 23-year-old forward with Coachella Valley Firebirds in the AHL. He has 2 goals and 4 assists in 6 games, 1.00 a game, which works out to about 32 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. The five best scorers around him average 1.22 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 195 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 23% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner1%
- Middle-sixer3%
- Fourth-liner23%
- Tweener33%
- AHLer (most likely)83%
How he got there
1His line
1.00 P/GP
2 G, 4 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
32 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−15%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
23.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
29 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1.00 |
| Last season | Coachella Valley Firebirds | AHL | 45 | 10 | 14 | 24 | 0.53 |