Prospect board, #874 overall
Julian Lutz
Forward, 22.5 years old, Tucson Roadrunners (AHL), 6′2″ 201 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
10%
Scouting report
Julian Lutz is a 22-year-old forward with Tucson Roadrunners in the AHL. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 5 games, 0.20 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 201 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 10% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer<1%
- Fourth-liner10%
- Tweener16%
- AHLer (most likely)78%
How he got there
1His line
0.20 P/GP
0 G, 1 A in 5 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
No change
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
22.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
28 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Tucson Roadrunners | AHL | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.20 |
| Last season | Tucson Roadrunners | AHL | 55 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 0.22 |