Prospect board, #257 overall
Justin Beaulieu
Defence, 17.2 years old, Rimouski Océanic (QMJHL), 5′11″ 176 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
28%
Scouting report
Justin Beaulieu is a 17-year-old defenceman with Rimouski Océanic in the QMJHL. He has 1 goal and 8 assists in 11 games, 0.82 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. That is up from 0.18 a game last season. His team scores 5.2 a game, one of the better offences around. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back.
At 17.2 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 176 pounds. His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 28% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 15% of a top-pair career and 2% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 40 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- Top-pair15%
- Second-pair22%
- Third-pair28%
- Tweener30%
- AHLer (most likely)54%
How he got there
1His line
0.82 P/GP
1 G, 8 A in 11 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
8 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−22%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
40 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Rimouski Océanic | QMJHL | 11 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 0.82 |
| Last season | Rimouski Océanic | QMJHL | 62 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 0.18 |