Prospect board, #343 overall
Justin Gagnon
Right wing, 16.6 years old, Rimouski Océanic (QMJHL), 6′4″ 175 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
27%
Scouting report
Justin Gagnon is a 16-year-old right wing with Rimouski Océanic in the QMJHL. He has 1 goal and 6 assists in 10 games, 0.70 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 5.2 a game, one of the better offences around. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them.
At 16.6 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 175 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 27% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 9% of a first-line career and 4% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 46 points a season at his best. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite4%
- First-liner9%
- Middle-sixer15%
- Fourth-liner27%
- Tweener31%
- AHLer48%
How he got there
1His line
0.70 P/GP
1 G, 6 A in 10 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
7 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−22%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
16.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
46 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Rimouski Océanic | QMJHL | 10 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0.70 |