Prospect board, #320 overall
Kai Uchacz
Forward, 23.2 years old, Henderson Silver Knights (AHL), 6′2″ 206 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
39%
Scouting report
Kai Uchacz is a 23-year-old forward with Henderson Silver Knights in the AHL. He has 20 goals and 31 assists in 68 games, 0.75 a game, which works out to about 24 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. The five best scorers around him average 1.12 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 206 pounds.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 39% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 29 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner2%
- Middle-sixer5%
- Fourth-liner39%
- Tweener41%
- AHLer (most likely)95%+
How he got there
1His line
0.75 P/GP
20 G, 31 A in 68 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
24 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−12%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
23.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
29 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Henderson Silver Knights | AHL | 68 | 20 | 31 | 51 | 0.75 |