Prospect board, #1731 overall
Kazden Mathies
Left wing, 19.4 years old, Saskatoon Blades (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
2%
Scouting report
Kazden Mathies is a 19-year-old left wing with Saskatoon Blades in the WHL, undrafted. He has 6 goals and 7 assists in 9 games, 1.44 a game, which works out to about 17 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. That is up from 0.54 a game last season. The five best scorers around him average 1.42 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back.
The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with plenty of games behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 2% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a full sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer<1%
- Fourth-liner2%
- Tweener2%
- AHLer25%
How he got there
1His line
1.44 P/GP
6 G, 7 A in 9 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
17 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−18%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
38 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Saskatoon Blades | WHL | 9 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 1.44 |
| Last season | Saskatoon Blades | WHL | 68 | 19 | 18 | 37 | 0.54 |