Prospect board, #39 overall
Keaton Ardagh
Right wing, 17.2 years old, Brampton Steelheads (OHL), 6′0″ 163 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
64%
Scouting report
Keaton Ardagh is a 17-year-old right wing with Brampton Steelheads in the OHL. He has 5 goals and 3 assists in 10 games, 0.80 a game, which works out to about 9 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is goals. That is up from 0.39 a game last season. His team scores 2.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.73 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up.
At 17.2 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 163 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a fourth-liner, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 64% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 33% of a first-line career and 15% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 55 points a season at his best. A fourth-line job tends to come from penalty killing and faceoffs more than from scoring.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite15%
- First-liner33%
- Middle-sixer48%
- Fourth-liner (most likely)64%
- Tweener75%
- AHLer83%
How he got there
1His line
0.80 P/GP
5 G, 3 A in 10 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
9 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+39%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
17.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
55 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Brampton Steelheads | OHL | 10 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0.80 |
| Last season | Brampton Steelheads | OHL | 64 | 14 | 11 | 25 | 0.39 |