Prospect board, #916 overall
Kieren Dervin
Centre, 19.5 years old, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL), 6′1″ 183 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
9%
Scouting report
Kieren Dervin is a 19-year-old centre with Kingston Frontenacs in the OHL, undrafted. He has 17 goals and 25 assists in 53 games, 0.79 a game, which works out to about 9 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.8 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.68 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 183 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 9% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner2%
- Middle-sixer3%
- Fourth-liner9%
- Tweener15%
- AHLer (most likely)56%
How he got there
1His line
0.79 P/GP
17 G, 25 A in 53 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
9 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+26%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
19.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
38 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Kingston Frontenacs | OHL | 53 | 17 | 25 | 42 | 0.79 |