GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #49 overall

Kohyn Eshkawkogan

Defence, 17.8 years old, Ottawa 67's (OHL), 5′10″ 179 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

60%

Third-pair

Scouting report

Kohyn Eshkawkogan is a 17-year-old defenceman with Ottawa 67's in the OHL. He has 0 goals and 4 assists in 10 games, 0.40 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.

That is down from 0.78 a game last season, and the projection drops with it. Listed at 5-foot-10 and 179 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a third-pair defenceman, with plenty of games behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 60% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 27% of a top-pair career and 16% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 39 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A third-pair job tends to come down to defending more than points.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a full sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite16%
  2. Top-pair27%
  3. Second-pair44%
  4. Third-pair (most likely)60%
  5. Tweener71%
  6. AHLer87%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.40 P/GP

    0 G, 4 A in 10 games, OHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    5 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    −6%

    Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster

  4. 4Age

    17.8

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    None

    Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers

  6. 6If he makes it

    39 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
This seasonOttawa 67'sOHL100440.40
Last seasonOttawa 67'sOHL68845530.78