Landon Jackman

Centre, 17.2 years old, Owen Sound Attack (OHL), 6′3″ 216 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

35%

AHLer

Scouting report

Landon Jackman is a 17-year-old centre with Owen Sound Attack in the OHL. He has 3 goals and 6 assists in 38 games, 0.24 a game, which works out to about 3 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.

At 17.2 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 216 pounds. His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 35% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 16% of a first-line career and 5% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 50 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite5%
First-liner16%
Middle-sixer24%
Fourth-liner35%
Tweener46%
AHLer (most likely)60%

How he got there

1His line
0.24 P/GP
3 G, 6 A in 38 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
3 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
No change
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.2
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
50 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
Last season	Owen Sound Attack	OHL	38	3	6	9	0.24