Levi Harper

Defence, 17.9 years old, Saginaw Spirit (OHL), 6′0″ 185 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

67%

Second-pair

Scouting report

Levi Harper is a 17-year-old defenceman with Saginaw Spirit in the OHL. He has 2 goals and 8 assists in 5 games, 2.00 a game, which works out to about 24 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. The five best scorers around him average 1.38 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 185 pounds.

His most likely outcome is a second-pair defenceman, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 67% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 49% of a top-pair career and 45% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 52 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Moving up a tier would take the points holding up against better competition.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite45%
Top-pair49%
Second-pair (most likely)58%
Third-pair67%
Tweener81%
AHLer87%

How he got there

1His line
2.00 P/GP
2 G, 8 A in 5 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
24 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−15%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.9
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
52 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Saginaw Spirit	OHL	5	2	8	10	2.00
Last season	Saginaw Spirit	OHL	68	12	45	57	0.84