Liam Arsenault

Left wing, 17.8 years old, Newfoundland Regiment (QMJHL), 5′9″ 172 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

17%

AHLer

Scouting report

Liam Arsenault is a 17-year-old left wing with Newfoundland Regiment in the QMJHL. He has 2 goals and 3 assists in 9 games, 0.56 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 172 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 17% chance of becoming an NHL regular. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite2%
First-liner2%
Middle-sixer6%
Fourth-liner17%
Tweener22%
AHLer (most likely)58%

How he got there

1His line
0.56 P/GP
2 G, 3 A in 9 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
5 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
No change
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.8
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
36 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Newfoundland Regiment	QMJHL	9	2	3	5	0.56
Last season	Newfoundland Regiment	QMJHL	64	17	13	30	0.47