Prospect board, #220 overall
Loïk Gariépy
Left wing, 17.3 years old, Victoriaville Tigres (QMJHL), 6′0″ 180 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
31%
Scouting report
Loïk Gariépy is a 17-year-old left wing with Victoriaville Tigres in the QMJHL. He has 4 goals and 3 assists in 11 games, 0.64 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
At 17.3 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 180 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 31% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 10% of a first-line career and 6% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 47 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite6%
- First-liner10%
- Middle-sixer19%
- Fourth-liner31%
- Tweener44%
- AHLer (most likely)70%
How he got there
1His line
0.64 P/GP
4 G, 3 A in 11 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
6 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−7%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
17.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
47 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Victoriaville Tigres | QMJHL | 11 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.64 |
| Last season | Victoriaville Tigres | QMJHL | 58 | 13 | 16 | 29 | 0.50 |