Prospect board, #212 overall
Luca Pinelli
Left wing, 21.4 years old, Cleveland Monsters (AHL), 5′9″ 168 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
39%
Scouting report
Luca Pinelli is a 21-year-old left wing with Cleveland Monsters in the AHL. He has 3 goals and 3 assists in 6 games, 1.00 a game, which works out to about 32 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 5-foot-9 and 168 pounds.
His most likely outcome is a tweener, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 39% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 4% of a first-line career. If he makes it, figure about 34 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner4%
- Middle-sixer14%
- Fourth-liner39%
- Tweener (most likely)63%
- AHLer95%+
How he got there
1His line
1.00 P/GP
3 G, 3 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
32 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−7%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
21.4
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
34 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Cleveland Monsters | AHL | 6 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 1.00 |
| Last season | Cleveland Monsters | AHL | 68 | 14 | 32 | 46 | 0.68 |