Prospect board, #358 overall
Lucian Bernat
Right wing, 18.3 years old, Owen Sound Attack (OHL), 6′4″ 201 lb, shoots right
Odds he's an NHL regular
28%
Scouting report
Lucian Bernat is an 18-year-old right wing with Owen Sound Attack in the OHL. He has 0 goals and 5 assists in 7 games, 0.71 a game, which works out to about 8 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 2.2 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.82 points a game. He's producing without much support, and the model bumps him up for it. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 201 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a tweener, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 28% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 34 points a season at his best. His odds move most with next season's line, so a big jump would matter more than a repeat.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite2%
- First-liner2%
- Middle-sixer9%
- Fourth-liner28%
- Tweener (most likely)51%
- AHLer67%
How he got there
1His line
0.71 P/GP
0 G, 5 A in 7 games, OHL
2League exchange rate
8 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+34%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
18.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
34 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Owen Sound Attack | OHL | 7 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.71 |