GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #1852 overall

Lukas Moore

Defence, 19.4 years old, Soo Greyhounds (OHL), 6′3″ 201 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

2%

Long shot

Scouting report

Lukas Moore is a 19-year-old defenceman with Soo Greyhounds in the OHL, undrafted. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 11 games, 0.09 a game, which works out to about 1 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 201 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 2% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite<1%
  2. Top-pair<1%
  3. Second-pair<1%
  4. Third-pair2%
  5. Tweener4%
  6. AHLer14%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.09 P/GP

    0 G, 1 A in 11 games, OHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    1 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    No change

    Credit for a weak offence or thin help

  4. 4Age

    19.4

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    None

    Passed over, read as a pick after the last one

  6. 6If he makes it

    23 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
This seasonSoo GreyhoundsOHL110110.09
Last seasonKingston FrontenacsOHL572790.16