Prospect board, #983 overall
Lukas Sawchyn
Right wing, 19.6 years old, Edmonton Oil Kings (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
8%
Scouting report
Lukas Sawchyn is a 19-year-old right wing with Edmonton Oil Kings in the WHL, undrafted. He has 27 goals and 61 assists in 68 games, 1.29 a game, which works out to about 15 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people.
His most likely outcome is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him an 8% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 3% of a first-line career. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner3%
- Middle-sixer3%
- Fourth-liner8%
- Tweener8%
- AHLer (most likely)53%
How he got there
1His line
1.29 P/GP
27 G, 61 A in 68 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
15 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−10%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
44 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Edmonton Oil Kings | WHL | 68 | 27 | 61 | 88 | 1.29 |