Prospect board, #431 overall
Luke Haymes
Centre, 23.1 years old, Toronto Marlies (AHL), 6′1″ 202 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
26%
Scouting report
Luke Haymes is a 23-year-old centre with Toronto Marlies in the AHL. He has 1 goal and 4 assists in 6 games, 0.83 a game, which works out to about 27 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. The five best scorers around him average 1.31 points a game, well above the norm. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 202 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 26% chance of becoming an NHL regular. If he makes it, figure about 30 points a season at his best. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner2%
- Middle-sixer4%
- Fourth-liner26%
- Tweener40%
- AHLer (most likely)92%
How he got there
1His line
0.83 P/GP
1 G, 4 A in 6 games, AHL
2League exchange rate
27 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−17%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
23.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
31 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Toronto Marlies | AHL | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0.83 |
| Last season | Toronto Marlies | AHL | 66 | 17 | 16 | 33 | 0.50 |