Malik L'Italien

Defence, 17.3 years old, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL), 6′4″ 197 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

35%

AHLer

Scouting report

Malik L'Italien is a 17-year-old defenceman with Halifax Mooseheads in the QMJHL. He has 1 goal and 9 assists in 10 games, 1.00 a game, which works out to about 9 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. That is up from 0.38 a game last season.

At 17.3 he is among the youngest regulars in the league, and age matters more than any single stat in these projections. Listed at 6-foot-4 and 197 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is an AHLer, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 35% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 16% of a top-pair career and 7% of turning into one of the league's best. If he makes it, figure about 38 points a season at his best. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. A big step next season would change these odds more than anything else.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite7%
Top-pair16%
Second-pair25%
Third-pair35%
Tweener42%
AHLer (most likely)68%

How he got there

1His line
1.00 P/GP
1 G, 9 A in 10 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
9 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+2%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
17.3
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers
6If he makes it
38 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
This season	Halifax Mooseheads	QMJHL	10	1	9	10	1.00
Last season	Halifax Mooseheads	QMJHL	64	4	20	24	0.38