Prospect board, #861 overall
Mateo Nobert
Centre, 19.1 years old, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL), 6′0″ 184 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
10%
Scouting report
Mateo Nobert is a 19-year-old centre with Halifax Mooseheads in the QMJHL, undrafted. He has 3 goals and 7 assists in 8 games, 1.25 a game, which works out to about 12 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 3.3 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 184 pounds.
The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 10% chance of becoming an NHL regular and 3% of a first-line career. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite1%
- First-liner3%
- Middle-sixer6%
- Fourth-liner10%
- Tweener12%
- AHLer46%
How he got there
1His line
1.25 P/GP
3 G, 7 A in 8 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
12 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+7%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
19.1
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
45 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Halifax Mooseheads | QMJHL | 8 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 1.25 |
| Last season | Blainville-Boisbriand Armada | QMJHL | 62 | 30 | 48 | 78 | 1.26 |