Prospect board, #2088 overall
Mathias Bourque
Centre, 19.6 years old, Val-d'Or Foreurs (QMJHL), 6′0″ 173 lb, shoots left
Odds he's an NHL regular
1%
Scouting report
Mathias Bourque is a 19-year-old centre with Val-d'Or Foreurs in the QMJHL, undrafted. He has 0 goals and 1 assist in 12 games, 0.08 a game, which works out to about 1 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate.
That is down from 0.32 a game last season, and the projection drops with it. His team scores 4.2 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.42 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 173 pounds. The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 1% chance of becoming an NHL regular. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- First-liner<1%
- Middle-sixer<1%
- Fourth-liner1%
- Tweener1%
- AHLer13%
How he got there
1His line
0.08 P/GP
0 G, 1 A in 12 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
1 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−16%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
19.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
44 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | Val-d'Or Foreurs | QMJHL | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 |
| Last season | Val-d'Or Foreurs | QMJHL | 56 | 9 | 9 | 18 | 0.32 |