GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #1701 overall

Mathieu Plante

Defence, 20.0 years old, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL), 6′0″ 179 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

3%

Long shot

Scouting report

Mathieu Plante is a 20-year-old defenceman with Shawinigan Cataractes in the QMJHL, undrafted. He has 9 goals and 26 assists in 59 games, 0.59 a game, which works out to about 6 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. At 20.0 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 6-foot-0 and 179 pounds.

His most likely outcome is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 3% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite<1%
  2. Top-pair<1%
  3. Second-pair<1%
  4. Third-pair3%
  5. Tweener4%
  6. AHLer23%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    0.59 P/GP

    9 G, 26 A in 59 games, QMJHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    6 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    −8%

    Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster

  4. 4Age

    20.0

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    None

    Passed over, read as a pick after the last one

  6. 6If he makes it

    25 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
Last seasonShawinigan CataractesQMJHL59926350.59