Mathieu Taillefer

Defence, 20.6 years old, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL), 6′1″ 190 lb, shoots right

Odds he's an NHL regular

<1%

Long shot

Scouting report

Mathieu Taillefer is a 20-year-old defenceman with Blainville-Boisbriand Armada in the QMJHL, undrafted. He has 1 goal and 13 assists in 48 games, 0.29 a game, which works out to about 3 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 4.2 a game, one of the better offences around. And the five best scorers around him average 1.23 points a game, well above the norm. Some of those points come from the company he keeps, and the model discounts them. At 20.6 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 190 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a under 1% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

Elite<1%
Top-pair<1%
Second-pair<1%
Third-pair<1%
Tweener1%
AHLer8%

How he got there

1His line
0.29 P/GP
1 G, 13 A in 48 games, QMJHL
2League exchange rate
3 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
−17%
Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster
4Age
20.6
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
4 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

Season	Team	League	GP	G	A	P	P/GP
Last season	Blainville-Boisbriand Armada	QMJHL	48	1	13	14	0.29