Prospect board, #2020 overall
Matteo Fabrizi
Defence, 21.5 years old, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL)
Odds he's an NHL regular
2%
Scouting report
Matteo Fabrizi is a 21-year-old defenceman with Lethbridge Hurricanes in the WHL, undrafted. He has 5 goals and 18 assists in 56 games, 0.41 a game, which works out to about 5 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. Most of it is setting up other people. His team scores 2.5 a game, below the league, and much less when he is not the one scoring. And the five best scorers around him average only 0.73 points a game. Scoring without much help counts for more, so the model nudges him up. At 21.5 he is old for the league, so the model expects him to outscore younger players and gives less credit for it.
His most likely outcome is a long shot, with a fair sample behind it. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 2% chance of becoming an NHL regular. This is a points model, so it can't see what he does without the puck. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.
Written by the model from his numbers, on a fair sample. prospects-0.3.
His odds
His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.
- Elite<1%
- Top-pair<1%
- Second-pair<1%
- Third-pair2%
- Tweener3%
- AHLer8%
How he got there
1His line
0.41 P/GP
5 G, 18 A in 56 games, WHL
2League exchange rate
5 pts
NHL-equivalent points over 82
3Team around him
+29%
Credit for a weak offence or thin help
4Age
21.5
On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20
5Draft slot
None
Passed over, read as a pick after the last one
6If he makes it
28 pts
Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars
Season lines
| Season | Team | League | GP | G | A | P | P/GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last season | Lethbridge Hurricanes | WHL | 56 | 5 | 18 | 23 | 0.41 |