GRIT & GF

Prospect board, #555 overall

Maxmilian Mares

Centre, 17.4 years old, Rimouski Océanic (QMJHL), 6′6″ 231 lb, shoots left

Odds he's an NHL regular

12%

Long shot

Scouting report

Maxmilian Mares is a 17-year-old centre with Rimouski Océanic in the QMJHL. He has 5 goals and 7 assists in 11 games, 1.09 a game, which works out to about 10 NHL points over 82 at his league's exchange rate. His team scores 5.2 a game, one of the better offences around. Linemates like that pad a stat line, so the model takes some of his points back. Listed at 6-foot-6 and 231 pounds.

The model's median outcome for him is a long shot, on a small sample. Players drafted from 2010 to 2017 with numbers like his give him a 12% chance of becoming an NHL regular, 6% of a first-line career and 3% of turning into one of the league's best. Few players with numbers like these made it, though some did.

Written by the model from his numbers, on a small sample. prospects-0.3.

His odds

His chance of reaching at least each tier, from 2010 to 2017 draft picks with a line, age like his. The highest tier where he's at even odds or better is his likeliest outcome.

  1. Elite3%
  2. First-liner6%
  3. Middle-sixer11%
  4. Fourth-liner12%
  5. Tweener30%
  6. AHLer40%

How he got there

  1. 1His line

    1.09 P/GP

    5 G, 7 A in 11 games, QMJHL

  2. 2League exchange rate

    10 pts

    NHL-equivalent points over 82

  3. 3Team around him

    −18%

    Discount for a strong offence or stacked roster

  4. 4Age

    17.4

    On 15 September. The same line is worth more at 17 than at 20

  5. 5Draft slot

    None

    Not yet eligible, judged on his numbers

  6. 6If he makes it

    59 pts

    Peak points per 82 for players like him who became regulars

Season lines

SeasonTeamLeagueGPGAPP/GP
This seasonRimouski OcéanicQMJHL1157121.09